🌊 Ceasar Hurricane Model Suite
Raw IBTrACS Data + Ceasar Projections vs NOAA Threshold Data + Ceasar Projections
📖 The Limitations of Threshold-Based Classification
The standard methodology in tropical cyclone analysis applies a sustained wind speed threshold of 39 mph to classify systems as named tropical storms. While this convention provides consistency across the historical record, it imposes a discrete classification boundary on a continuous dynamical process.
In the current regime of increased rapid intensification, such threshold-based filtering may exclude dynamically relevant systems. Tropical disturbances that remain below the naming threshold throughout their lifecycle are not included in official statistics, yet they may reflect meaningful variations in atmospheric and oceanic conditions.
Presenting both raw tropical system counts (all recorded disturbances, depressions, and storms) alongside threshold-filtered named storm counts provides a more complete representation of basin-wide activity. The difference between these datasets offers a direct measure of activity not captured by standard classification criteria.
📌 Note on Pre-1990 Observational Coverage
Tropical cyclone observations prior to 1990 relied primarily on ship reports and coastal monitoring stations. As a result, detection was limited to systems that were sufficiently strong or located near established observation routes. Consequently, weaker or short-lived systems may be underrepresented in the historical record for this period.
🌊 Chart 1: Raw IBTrACS Data + Ceasar Projections (1880–2100)
Raw tropical system counts from the NOAA IBTrACS database. Includes all recorded tropical systems with no wind speed threshold applied. Pre-1990 data has observational limitations.
NOAA IBTrACS (Unfiltered Tropical Systems)
🌀 Chart 2: NOAA Threshold Data + Ceasar Projections (1990–2100)
NOAA's official threshold-classified data (HURDAT2). Only includes named storms ≥39 mph. Sub-threshold systems that do not reach sustained wind speeds of 39 mph are excluded from official named storm statistics.
NOAA HURDAT2 ≥39 MPH THRESHOLD
📊 Chart 3: Direct Comparison — Raw IBTrACS vs NOAA Threshold (1990-2025)
The divergence between raw and threshold-filtered datasets reflects sensitivity to classification boundaries and provides a direct measure of how thresholding alters the observable system.
C1-HURR-2025-07-17-V1
Version: 1.0 (Versioned analysis record)
Scope: IBTrACS (raw) + HURDAT2 (≥39 mph threshold)
Models: C1, C2, C7
Content Identifier (IPFS CID)
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